Geopolitical Tensions Highlight Need for Resilient AI Supply Chains

Tensions in the Middle East are testing U.S. efforts to secure the global AI supply chain, as federal officials work to mitigate potential disruptions to critical shipping routes, energy resources and semiconductor logistics.

Iranian officials warned that vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz could be targeted, raising concerns about disruptions to global commerce and the infrastructure supporting AI development.

David Lin, senior director for future technology platforms at the Special Competitive Studies Project, told GovCIO Media & Research that early signs of disruption could ripple across the AI ecosystem, particularly in shipping and energy inputs required for compute and chip manufacturing.

“It will have downstream effects on the AI supply chain,” he said.

Securing the AI Stack Through Allied Partnerships

The test comes as the U.S. and its partners operationalize the Pax Silica Declaration, the State Department’s flagship effort on AI and supply chain security. The effort, launched in December 2025, aims to secure global tech supply chains and address opportunities for AI.

The joint agreement includes 10 signatories so far — Australia, Greece, India, Israel, Japan, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Singapore, United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom — and builds on the Trump administration’s goal of “winning the AI race” and promoting American AI globally as outlined in the AI Action Plan.

“Complete technological self-containment is unrealistic for any country because the AI stack is incredibly complex,” White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Director Michael Kratsios said at the India AI Impact Summit in February.

Kratsios emphasized “strategic autonomy,” built on trusted partnerships and shared infrastructure. The approach enables nations to develop sovereign AI capabilities while leveraging best-in-class technologies across the allied ecosystem.

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg said in December that Pax Silica aims to decentralize the global supply chain and reduce the impact of single points of failure.

“We need the best innovation and the most diffusion of this technology. The challenge is that any diffusion makes the innovation landscape more competitive,” said Helberg. “That’s why we’re forging AI partnerships with strategic partners in the Gulf to rapidly expand our compute capacity faster than anyone else.”

Lin said that model reflects a broader shift among governments seeking greater control over AI systems without sacrificing access.

“This signals that the American AI stack is the pathway to AI sovereignty. It is objectively the highest performing, best-in-class tech that you can find in the world,” said Lin.

Testing Supply Chain Resilience

The conflict in the Middle East is expected to serve as an early proving ground for that approach. Lin noted that resilience will depend on how effectively allied nations coordinate during disruptions.

“This has huge ramifications across all sectors of the economy, but I think a lot of AI and tech companies will be focusing on continuity of operations,” said Lin. “The U.S. plays a strong role in every single one of the AI stack layers, but it isn’t a singular role. We need the Netherlands, Japan, Korea, all the other members of Pax Silica, to pull their weight for the whole supply chain to work.”

A State Department official told GovCIO Media & Research the agency is advancing AI supply chain and infrastructure as planned. The official added that the agency is working with partners to ensure efforts to strengthen and secure these critical sectors remain on track.