How AI Developments Could Shake Out After Shutdown

The ongoing shutdown could slow implementation of artificial intelligence executive orders and the White House’s AI Action Plan, experts said. A longer shutdown would delay the education, innovation and infrastructure orders specifically.

“There’s going to be a lot of agency leadership [tasked with implementation] who will say, ‘I’m just not going to meet it, and I can’t because I didn’t have the people, and they weren’t here, and they weren’t considered essential,’” GuidePoint Security Federal CTO Jean-Paul Bergeaux told GovCIO Media & Research. “Especially if it drags out and gets to that point where it just isn’t even feasible [to meet the deadlines].”

Since returning to office again in January, President Donald Trump has signed nine AI-related executive orders aimed at bolstering American leadership in the tech.

Bergeaux added that the shutdown’s cascade effect of implementation delays will hurt agencies’ AI posture.

“It’s not just delaying what they’re implementing,” he said, “[The shutdown] is going to delay the next steps and getting to the next level on whatever they’re doing with AI.”

Movement in Congress on AI

The Senate last week passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2026 that included an amendment setting export controls for AI-tailored semiconductor chips. The measure aligns with a pillar within the White House’s AI Action Plan aimed at bringing semiconductor chip production to the United States.

The White House’s July executive order on promoting the export of the American AI tech stack calls for the “establishment of the American AI exports program” within 90 days of its passing.

Bergeaux said the deadline may not be met. Lawmakers from both the Senate and House still have to work out their differences between their respective versions of the bill before it continues in the lawmaking process.

AI Education and Infrastructure

A lapse in federal funding could also disrupt efforts to build AI literacy and infrastructure, experts said.

The April AI education executive order instructed the National Science Foundation (NSF) director to prioritize research of AI in education.

As part of that, NSF will use existing programs like the STEM K-12 program to provide training opportunities for educators to “effectively integrate AI-based tools and modalities” in classrooms.

NSF also awarded additional funding for AI education and workforce programs in August. One of these organizations, the Education Development Center (EDC), is helping advance several AI-literacy programs from pre-school to college students.

“Funding stoppages would slow or halt these efforts, limiting progress in integrating AI literacy and fluency into education systems,” Sarita Pillai, vice president of STEM and workforce success EDC, told GovCIO Media & Research. “Without widespread investment in public education in these skills, the nation’s AI readiness and workforce capacity could be at risk.”

A prolonged shutdown would exacerbate existing funding gaps and disrupt the pipeline of innovation in STEM and emerging technologies.

“Without steady investment, the pace of U.S. innovation could slow, widening the gap between the U.S. and other countries investing heavily in STEM and AI research and education,” warned Pillai.

Causes for Optimism

More than one million federal employees are furloughed or are working without pay, according to the Office of Personnel Management Guidance. For those still working, AI can help,  according to Nicolas Chaillan, founder of Ask Sage AI and former Air Force and Space Force chief software officer from 2019 to 2021.

“When you have a lot of people furloughed, the fact that is [generative AI software] can augment the velocity of people that are still left and doing their jobs the best they can with those constraints at a much faster pace,” Chaillan told GovCIO Media & Research.

Bergeaux said that the shutdown won’t stop the years-long momentum for AI implementation in government — assuming it doesn’t last too long.

“I think we’re going to see a very vehement resurgence of AI momentum once there’s comfort that they know what they can do,” he said. “If the [continuing resolution] comes in at the same budget levels as before, it will make them feel like they can just jump right back in and go after it.”